| Titre : |
Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall |
| Type de document : |
texte imprimé |
| Auteurs : |
Peter Turchin (1957-....), Auteur |
| Editeur : |
Princeton -New Jersey [États-Unis] : Princeton University Press |
| Année de publication : |
2003 |
| Collection : |
Princeton studies in complexity |
| Importance : |
XII-245 p. |
| Présentation : |
ill. |
| Format : |
25 cm |
| ISBN/ISSN/EAN : |
978-0-691-11669-3 |
| Note générale : |
Bibliogr. p. [226]-242. Index |
| Langues : |
Anglais (eng) |
| Catégories : |
Histoire -- Méthodologie ; Histoire -- Modèles mathématiques ; Histoire -- Sociologie historique ; Historiomérie
|
| Index. décimale : |
901.13 |
| Résumé : |
"Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics - why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract - this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history." "Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics." -- 4e de la couv |
| Note de contenu : |
Statement of the problem -- Geopolitics -- Collective solidarity -- The metaethnic frontier theory -- An empirical test of the metaethnic frontier theory -- Ethnokinetics -- The demographic-structural theory -- Secular cycles in population numbers -- Case studies -- Mathematical appendix -- Data summaries for the test of the metaethnic frontier theory
Ch. 1. Statement of the Problem: 1.1 Why Do We Need a Mathematical Theory in History? 1.2 Historical Dynamics as a Research Program: 1.2.1 Delimiting the Set of Questions; 1.2.2 A Focus on Agrarian Polities; 1.2.3 The Hierarchical Modeling Approach; 1.2.4 Mathematical Framework; 1.3 Summary -- Ch. 2. Geopolitics: 2.1 A Primer of Dynamics: 2.1.1 Boundless Growth; 2.1.2 Equilibrial Dynamics; 2.1.3 Boom/Bust Dynamics and Sustained Oscillations; 2.1.4 Implications for Historical Dynamics; 2.2 The Collins Theory of Geopolitics: 2.2.1 Modeling Size and Distance Effects; 2.2.2 Positional Effects; 2.2.3 Conflict-legitimacy Dynamics; 2.3 Conclusion: Geopolitics as a First-order Process; 2.4 Summary. Ch. 3. Collective Solidarity: 3.1 Groups in Sociology; 3.1.1 Groups as Analytical Units; 3.1.2 Evolution of Solidaristic Behaviors; 3.1.3 Ethnic Groups and Ethnicity; 3.1.4 The Social Scale; 3.1.5 Ethnies; 3.2 Collective Solidarity and Historical Dynamics: 3.2.1 Ibn Khaldun's Theory; 3.2.2 Gumilev's Theory; 3.2.3 The Modern Context; 3.3 Summary -- Ch. 4. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory: 4.1 Frontiers as Incubators of Group Solidarity: 4.1.1 Factors Causing Solidarity Increase; 4.1.2 Imperial Boundaries and Metaethnic Fault Lines; 4.1.3 Scaling-up Structures; 4.1.4 Placing the Metaethnic Frontier Theory in Context; 4.2 Mathematical Theory; 4.2.1 A Simple Analytical Model; 4.2.2 A Spatially Explicit Simulation; 4.3 Summary -- Ch. 5. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory: 5.1 Setting Up the Test: 5.1.1 Quantifying Frontiers; 5.1.2 Polity Size; 5.2 Results: 5.2.1 Europe: 0-1000 c.e.; 5.2.2 Europe: 1000-1900 c.e.; 5.3 Positional Advantage?; 5.4 Conclusion: The Making of Europe; 5.5 Summary -- Ch. 6. Ethnokinetics; 6.1 Allegiance Dynamics of Incorporated Populations; 6.2 Theory: 6.2.1 Nonspatial Models of Assimilation; 6.2.2 Spatially Explicit Models; 6.3 Empirical Tests; 6.3.1 Conversion to Islam; 6.3.2 The Rise of Christianity; 6.3.3 The Growth of the Mormon Church; 6.4 Conclusion: Data Support the Autocatalytic Model; 6.5 Summary -- Ch. 7. The Demographic-Structural Theory: 7.1 Population Dynamics and State Breakdown: 7.2 Mathematical Theory: 7.2.1 The Basic Demographic-Fiscal Model; 7.2.2 Adding Class Structure; 7.2.3 Models for Elite Cycles; 7.2.4 Models for the Chinese Dynastic Cycle; 7.2.5 Summing up Theoretical Insights; 7.3 Empirical Applications: 7.3.1 Periodic Breakdowns of Early Modern States; 7.3.2 The Great Wave; 7.3.3 After the Black Death; 7.4 Summary -- Ch. 8. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers: 8.1 Introduction; 8.2 "Scale" and "Order" in Human Population Dynamics; 8.3 Long-Term Empirical Patterns: 8.3.1 Reconstructions of Historical Populations; 8.3.2 Archaeological Data; 8.4 Population Dynamics and Political Instability; 8.5 Summary --Ch. 9. Case Studies: 9.1 France: 9.1.1 The Frontier Origins; 9.1.2 Secular Waves; 9.1.3 Summary; 9.2 Russia; 9.2.1 The Frontier Origins; 9.2.2 Secular Waves; 9.2.3 Summary -- Ch. 10. Conclusion: 10.1 Overview of Main Developments: 10.1.1 Asabiya and Metaethnic Frontiers ; 10.1.2 Ethnic Assimilation; 10.1.3 Demographic-Structural Theory; 10.1.4 Geopolitics; 10.2 Combining Different Mechanisms into an Integrated Whole; 10.3 Broadening the Focus of Investigation; 10.4 Toward Theoretical Cliodynamics? -- Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix: A.1 Translating the Hanneman Model into Differential Equations; A.2 The Spatial Simulation of the Frontier Hypothesis; A.3 Demographic-Structural Models with Class Structure; A.4 Models for Elite Cycles -- Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory: B.1 Brief Descriptions of "Cultural Regions"; B.2 Quantification of Frontiers; B.3 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The First Millennium c.e.; B.4 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The Second Millennium c.e. -- Bibliography -- Index |
Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall [texte imprimé] / Peter Turchin (1957-....), Auteur . - Princeton -New Jersey (Princeton (New Jersey - États-Unis), États-Unis) : Princeton University Press, 2003 . - XII-245 p. : ill. ; 25 cm. - ( Princeton studies in complexity) . ISBN : 978-0-691-11669-3 Bibliogr. p. [226]-242. Index Langues : Anglais ( eng)
| Catégories : |
Histoire -- Méthodologie ; Histoire -- Modèles mathématiques ; Histoire -- Sociologie historique ; Historiomérie
|
| Index. décimale : |
901.13 |
| Résumé : |
"Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics - why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract - this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history." "Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics." -- 4e de la couv |
| Note de contenu : |
Statement of the problem -- Geopolitics -- Collective solidarity -- The metaethnic frontier theory -- An empirical test of the metaethnic frontier theory -- Ethnokinetics -- The demographic-structural theory -- Secular cycles in population numbers -- Case studies -- Mathematical appendix -- Data summaries for the test of the metaethnic frontier theory
Ch. 1. Statement of the Problem: 1.1 Why Do We Need a Mathematical Theory in History? 1.2 Historical Dynamics as a Research Program: 1.2.1 Delimiting the Set of Questions; 1.2.2 A Focus on Agrarian Polities; 1.2.3 The Hierarchical Modeling Approach; 1.2.4 Mathematical Framework; 1.3 Summary -- Ch. 2. Geopolitics: 2.1 A Primer of Dynamics: 2.1.1 Boundless Growth; 2.1.2 Equilibrial Dynamics; 2.1.3 Boom/Bust Dynamics and Sustained Oscillations; 2.1.4 Implications for Historical Dynamics; 2.2 The Collins Theory of Geopolitics: 2.2.1 Modeling Size and Distance Effects; 2.2.2 Positional Effects; 2.2.3 Conflict-legitimacy Dynamics; 2.3 Conclusion: Geopolitics as a First-order Process; 2.4 Summary. Ch. 3. Collective Solidarity: 3.1 Groups in Sociology; 3.1.1 Groups as Analytical Units; 3.1.2 Evolution of Solidaristic Behaviors; 3.1.3 Ethnic Groups and Ethnicity; 3.1.4 The Social Scale; 3.1.5 Ethnies; 3.2 Collective Solidarity and Historical Dynamics: 3.2.1 Ibn Khaldun's Theory; 3.2.2 Gumilev's Theory; 3.2.3 The Modern Context; 3.3 Summary -- Ch. 4. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory: 4.1 Frontiers as Incubators of Group Solidarity: 4.1.1 Factors Causing Solidarity Increase; 4.1.2 Imperial Boundaries and Metaethnic Fault Lines; 4.1.3 Scaling-up Structures; 4.1.4 Placing the Metaethnic Frontier Theory in Context; 4.2 Mathematical Theory; 4.2.1 A Simple Analytical Model; 4.2.2 A Spatially Explicit Simulation; 4.3 Summary -- Ch. 5. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory: 5.1 Setting Up the Test: 5.1.1 Quantifying Frontiers; 5.1.2 Polity Size; 5.2 Results: 5.2.1 Europe: 0-1000 c.e.; 5.2.2 Europe: 1000-1900 c.e.; 5.3 Positional Advantage?; 5.4 Conclusion: The Making of Europe; 5.5 Summary -- Ch. 6. Ethnokinetics; 6.1 Allegiance Dynamics of Incorporated Populations; 6.2 Theory: 6.2.1 Nonspatial Models of Assimilation; 6.2.2 Spatially Explicit Models; 6.3 Empirical Tests; 6.3.1 Conversion to Islam; 6.3.2 The Rise of Christianity; 6.3.3 The Growth of the Mormon Church; 6.4 Conclusion: Data Support the Autocatalytic Model; 6.5 Summary -- Ch. 7. The Demographic-Structural Theory: 7.1 Population Dynamics and State Breakdown: 7.2 Mathematical Theory: 7.2.1 The Basic Demographic-Fiscal Model; 7.2.2 Adding Class Structure; 7.2.3 Models for Elite Cycles; 7.2.4 Models for the Chinese Dynastic Cycle; 7.2.5 Summing up Theoretical Insights; 7.3 Empirical Applications: 7.3.1 Periodic Breakdowns of Early Modern States; 7.3.2 The Great Wave; 7.3.3 After the Black Death; 7.4 Summary -- Ch. 8. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers: 8.1 Introduction; 8.2 "Scale" and "Order" in Human Population Dynamics; 8.3 Long-Term Empirical Patterns: 8.3.1 Reconstructions of Historical Populations; 8.3.2 Archaeological Data; 8.4 Population Dynamics and Political Instability; 8.5 Summary --Ch. 9. Case Studies: 9.1 France: 9.1.1 The Frontier Origins; 9.1.2 Secular Waves; 9.1.3 Summary; 9.2 Russia; 9.2.1 The Frontier Origins; 9.2.2 Secular Waves; 9.2.3 Summary -- Ch. 10. Conclusion: 10.1 Overview of Main Developments: 10.1.1 Asabiya and Metaethnic Frontiers ; 10.1.2 Ethnic Assimilation; 10.1.3 Demographic-Structural Theory; 10.1.4 Geopolitics; 10.2 Combining Different Mechanisms into an Integrated Whole; 10.3 Broadening the Focus of Investigation; 10.4 Toward Theoretical Cliodynamics? -- Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix: A.1 Translating the Hanneman Model into Differential Equations; A.2 The Spatial Simulation of the Frontier Hypothesis; A.3 Demographic-Structural Models with Class Structure; A.4 Models for Elite Cycles -- Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory: B.1 Brief Descriptions of "Cultural Regions"; B.2 Quantification of Frontiers; B.3 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The First Millennium c.e.; B.4 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The Second Millennium c.e. -- Bibliography -- Index |
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